What does the year ahead have in store for job market trends?
We hesitate to gather another round of New Year’s employment predictions. The last time we tried was January 2020… and we all know how that turned out.
With that disclaimer, here’s a quick review of what different employment experts are saying as we turn the calendar.
Star Tribune, Minnesota Heads into 2023 with Low Unemployment, Workforce Challenge: In the context of a paradigm shift from labor surpluses of the past to the labor scarcities of the present and future, analysts are puzzled by a complexity of contradictions stemming from Minnesota’s unique economic strengths and weaknesses.
Job Center of Wisconsin, Hot Jobs Projections: “The 2020 pandemic caused a large drop in employment in the base year. As a result, much of the projected state growth to 2030 is recovery. Some occupations that typically have strong projected growth rates just above the state rate did not qualify as Hot Jobs in this round if they did not have a significant decline in 2020 and subsequent recovery. Nursing is one example.”
Minnesota DEED, Job Outlook to 2030: Recovery and Expansion: “After two long years dealing with COVID-19, employment in Minnesota is expected to continue to recover in both the short-term and the long-term, according to new projections from DEED. This includes a period of recovery to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels, followed by continued economic expansion as businesses resume previous growth patterns.”
Fox 11, Wisconsin Sees Record Employment in 2022 Despite Widespread Staffing Shortages: “Five years ago, the labor market had an active candidate pool. Now, it’s shifted to a passive candidate pool.”
Forbes, The Great Rebalance: “The job market is more likely to regain its balance.”
ERE, A (Mostly) Positive Labor Market Forecast: “Despite constant anticipation of more negative news, along with many high-profile layoffs, the U.S. labor market has displayed very few signs of a major slowdown … Lower levels of job openings and hires also means lower turnover as people leave one role for another … If you do have open roles going into 2023, the industries impacted by layoffs and interest rate hikes could be a good source of talent … as job openings, hires, and voluntary quits moderate, it should help ease wage inflation.”
Bloomberg, Workers Will Keep Their Power in the Job Market Despite Recession Fears: “An aging population and reduced immigration have led to a smaller pool of workers overall.”
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections: Employment is projected to increase by 8.3 million jobs from 2021 to 2031. Nearly one third of new jobs are projected to be in health care and social assistance.
Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in hiring and retaining talent in 2023.